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Tom Wojcik’s report, with figures dated through September 26, 2026, traces the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure on oil prices, fuel availability, fertiliser and harvests. It also describes pressures on Poland and Europe, though the supplied source excerpt ends mid-sentence and does not include the report’s full evidence or later developments.
Tom Wojcik’s September 2026 report traces how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting fuel markets and food production, with consequences that reach Poland and Europe. The supplied report says tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 90 percent since March, linking the disruption to higher oil prices and warnings about fertiliser supplies and future harvests.
Wojcik says US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February and that Iran has kept Hormuz closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. He cites the International Energy Agency as describing the disruption as the largest oil supply disruption the market has experienced. The report places Brent crude near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month, and at $108 on September 24. Those figures describe different dates, not a single fixed price.
The report also describes a fragile ceasefire that had briefly pulled prices back to pre-war levels before breaking down. It says Iran gave Washington a written proposal on September 22 for a regional ceasefire lasting up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. According to Wojcik, Washington rejected the proposal. The supplied excerpt does not include independent documentation of the proposal or the response.
Beyond oil, Wojcik connects the disruption to fertiliser and food markets. He says Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser and cites a UN Food and Agriculture Organization warning that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten supplies into 2027. The excerpt also recounts a poor potato season in parts of Europe after reduced planting, heatwaves and drought, but ends during a sentence about wheat prices, leaving that section incomplete.
From Oil Routes to Food Bills
The report’s central concern is that a shipping disruption can pass into household costs and food availability through several linked systems. Higher oil prices affect transport and fuel; fertiliser shortages can affect what farmers grow and how much they harvest. The effects may not appear at the same time: the report says smaller harvests could become clearer later in 2026 and in 2027.
Wojcik writes from Poland, which he describes as reliant on coal and imported gas and as a country bordering Ukraine. That perspective highlights how energy security, the war in Ukraine and the conflict around Iran intersect in Europe. The report also describes a tanker-freight investment fund that rose sharply, but notes that the fund is small and its manager expects rates to fall if Hormuz reopens. Its performance does not establish broader gains for investors.
How the Strait Shapes Supply
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Wojcik’s report follows the effects of its closure along three routes: oil and fuel, fertiliser and food, and winter heating. It also points to the Bab al-Mandab, a Red Sea chokepoint, as part of the shipping detour, saying Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port during September.
The excerpt contrasts this year’s disruption with earlier pressures. It says a 2025 European potato glut led growers in several countries to plant less, then heatwaves and drought reduced expected yields. In Poland, it reports that growers harvested about seven million tonnes in 2025, 18 percent more than the previous year. These details are attributed to Wojcik’s report; the supplied material does not include links to the underlying datasets or full citations.
“The world is not ending. But for thirty years we swapped buffers for dependencies, because a supplier is cheaper than a stockpile and a guarantee is cheaper than an army.”
— Tom Wojcik, report author
What the Excerpt Cannot Confirm
The supplied source is an excerpt, not the complete report: it ends mid-sentence while discussing wheat prices. It therefore does not show the full evidence, all citations, the report’s final conclusions or any later developments. The reported military events, ceasefire proposal, rejection and market figures have not been independently verified within the supplied material.
It also remains unclear how long the strait will stay closed, whether shipping can resume safely, how much fertiliser supply will be lost, and how strongly that would affect specific harvests and food prices. Wojcik notes that some station shortages in France may reflect local demand and the pace of refilling rather than a national fuel shortage; the excerpt says the French government ruled out a shortage.
Signals to Watch Through 2027
The report points to the status of Hormuz and any ceasefire efforts as immediate factors for oil and shipping prices. If the strait reopens, tanker rates could fall, according to the fund manager quoted in the excerpt. If disruption continues, the report suggests that the effects on fertiliser delivery and harvests may become clearer over the coming months.
For readers assessing the claims, the next useful evidence would include updated shipping and oil-market data, official fertiliser supply assessments, harvest estimates and food-security figures. The supplied excerpt does not state a next diplomatic meeting or a confirmed date for a further decision.
Key Questions
What is the main development in the report?
Tom Wojcik reports that the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed since March 2026, sharply reducing tanker traffic and adding pressure to oil markets. He traces potential knock-on effects for fertiliser supplies, harvests and energy security.
What does the report say happened to oil prices?
It puts Brent crude near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and at $108 on September 24. These are dated observations cited by the report, not a current live quote.
Could the disruption affect food supplies?
The report says Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser and cites an FAO warning about lower yields and tighter food supplies into 2027. The extent of any resulting shortages or price changes is not established in the supplied excerpt.
What remains uncertain?
The duration of the closure, the prospects for a ceasefire, the amount of fertiliser supply affected and the eventual impact on harvests remain unclear from the excerpt. The full report and its underlying source links were not supplied.
Source: hn
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